There’s one question we’ve been hearing again and again from DWG students:
“Why hasn’t my portfolio exploded yet?”
Investors are growing restless, wondering why their coins haven’t 100x’d, and everyone is waiting for the highly anticipated fireworks.
So in this email, I’m going to shed some light, ease some concerns and explore what’s really going on.
Let’s start with a little history.
In the 2017 cycle, the Bitcoin halving took place on 9 July 2016. For several months, the market remained relatively quiet, with slow and steady growth. Then in May 2017, the accelerated phase of the bull market began. Momentum built throughout the year, leading into a dramatic final push from early October to mid-December 2017.
That surge — lasting just 70 days — became one of the most talked-about moments in Bitcoin history. During that short window, Bitcoin soared from around $4,000 to nearly $20,000, capturing global attention and marking the peak of that cycle.
Fast forward to the 2021 cycle. This time, the Bitcoin halving took place on 11 May 2020. The market remained steady for a few months before entering the growth phase around October 2020, which carried through to May 2021.
Just like in the previous cycle, the most explosive gains came in a short, intense window. Between late January and mid-April 2021, Bitcoin surged from approximately $30,000 to $64,000 — a powerful move that unfolded over just 75 days, and solidified crypto’s presence in mainstream financial conversation.
Which brings us to today.
Right now, we’re in May 2025, sitting at the 13-month mark post-halving — the exact same window where previous cycles began to accelerate. This is right where we expect to be for this bull cycle.
The accelerated growth zone is just one part of the bull market, and it’s a short window of time. We forget that bull markets see a lot of sideways consolidation along the way, which the mainstream media like to spin with fear-based narratives. The crazy, parabolic price action does happen within a bull market, but it’s not the whole story.
The fact that Bitcoin is over 100k is excellent news and indicates the ‘heat is on’ and we’re following previous patterns. We also got so many key indicators signalling that this bull market is ready to take a step up.
But there are still those who doubt it…
Disbelief is a Mid-Cycle Emotion
The ‘disbelief’ phase of the market cycle often happens between accumulation and mania. In past cycles, this was the moment when people started giving up, only for the market to make its biggest moves shortly after.
Disbelief shows up as:
“Why is my portfolio still down?”
“This doesn’t feel like a bull market.”
“It’s probably going to crash again.”
A sad truth is that many people exit the market just before the payoff. They grow impatient, fall for the FUD, and listen to voices that know nothing about crypto, telling them it’s all over.
But the smart money knows it’s far from over.
Smart money buys during dips, sideways markets, or fear phases, when most retail investors are too uncertain to act. Once prices move post-accumulation, sentiment flips and retail piles in.
It’s happened before:
Now, in 2025, we’re seeing the same pattern again.
Can you see the big picture lining up here? In my opinion, we’re building towards much bigger action.
Okay, So What About Altcoin Season?
Alt season is when prices go parabolic across the board, and it historically follows a pattern: Bitcoin moves, then Ethereum, then the altcoin boom. So let’s look at Ethereum because historically it’s the altcoin season leader:
So here we are, 13 months post-halving, ETH is still ~49% below its all-time high, while BTC has broken $100K. In my view, this is an incredible mid-cycle setup. We’re in the sweet spot of the bull market when the opportunity is still enormous.
Now, if you invested in late 2024 expecting fireworks by now — you’re not alone. Many are sitting at break-even or mild drawdown right now. And while that can be frustrating, it’s actually typical cycle behavior.
This is where patience and discipline matter most.
Your job right now is to be patient and stick to your plan because if the indicators have anything to say, the best is still yet to come. We’ve seen this play out before, and we’ve talked investors off the metaphorical ledge more times than we can count.
Having said that, your personal crypto journey is just that – personal. Only you can decide what is right for you, depending on your risk appetite. If you’re feeling overly stressed, it might be a sign that your investment amount is too aggressive for your risk appetite. That’s not failure — it’s feedback. You always have choice, and there is no shame in reducing your exposure or rebalancing your position to give yourself some peace of mind.
And if you’ve read this, and you’re feeling clear, grounded, and prepared — that’s a sign you’re aligned and positioned well for what’s still to come!
Remember, wealth transfers from the impatient to the patient. It always has, it always will.
Stay patient and let the market do the heavy lifting.
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