I did a deep dive on the phases of the bull market cycle, where the acceleration phase usually shows up, and why patience is key. We looked at historical patterns and key crypto indicators that suggest we’re exactly where we should be right now.
Today, I want to zoom out even further and look at the macro indicators — the big-picture signals that are lining up to suggest this could be one of the most exciting crypto bull cycles we’ve ever seen.
We know that whales are buying aggressively.
We know that global liquidity is expanding.
And we know that Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are drying up.
All the pieces are falling into place for the next leg of this bull market.
So let’s take a closer look at 5 key macro indicators and why they’re so bullish:
- DXY Decline
DXY stands for the US Dollar Index. It measures the value of the US dollar compared to a group of other major currencies, such as the euro, yen, and pound. You can think of it as a strength score for the US dollar.So what is the DXY telling us right now? It’s dropped from 109.35 in January to around 100.62 as of May 11, 2025. Historically, a weakening dollar tends to drive upward momentum in Bitcoin, as investors look for alternative stores of value.
- Global M2 Money Supply Growth
M2 is a measure of how much money exists in the global financial system — including things like cash, savings, and easily accessible funds. When M2 is growing, it means there’s more money flowing through the economy. That’s usually good news for ‘riskier’ investments like crypto, because people have more money to put into these assets.The interesting thing about M2 is that Bitcoin often reacts to these changes — not instantly, but usually 2 to 10 weeks later. That’s why I call M2 Bitcoin’s ‘crystal ball’ (as much as you can have a crystal ball in crypto!)
- Exchange Reserves at Multi-Year Lows
Right now, only about 2.5 million Bitcoin is left on crypto exchanges. That’s a big deal, because it means people are moving their coins into long-term storage (hardware wallets) instead of keeping them somewhere they could quickly sell. In past cycles, this has been a strong sign that big price moves may be coming.
- Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart gives investors a macro perspective on where we are in the cycle based on Bitcoin’s historical trajectory. Right now, Bitcoin is in the ‘Accumulate’ or ‘Still cheap’ zone — suggesting it’s still undervalued relative to where we’re projected to go. In previous cycles, this zone has preceded some of the biggest moves.
- BTC Dominance
Bitcoin dominance is the percentage of the total crypto market value that belongs to Bitcoin. Think of the whole crypto market like a big pie. Bitcoin dominance shows you how big Bitcoin’s slice of that pie is compared to all the other cryptocurrencies (like Ethereum, Solana, etc.). When Bitcoin dominance is high, the focus is mainly on Bitcoin. When it starts dropping, it can signal that investors are starting to move into altcoins, which often leads to altcoin season — when smaller coins start to surge in price.Where are we right now? Bitcoin dominance has dropped to around 63.89%, down from over 65%. That’s a sign altcoins are starting to gain traction.
So as you can see, macro and crypto indicators are both painting the same picture:
We’re in the build-up phase before the breakout.
Remember this market moves in ways, not straight lines. So have patience, remain grounded and keep preparing and positioning for what’s to come.
