Let’s talk – part 2: If I’m wrong, then all this is wrong 🔍

In part 1 of this 3-part series, I talked about why some are claiming this crypto bull market is over. Today, I want to look at what the macro and fundamental indicators have to say. These are what we’re watching behind the scenes to get a more objective view of what’s really happening in this market.

A lot of people want one easy, cookie-cutter response to why the market isn’t moving right now, when the truth is, there isn’t just one reason. But what we do have are 20 key points to explore…

So let’s take a look.

1. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at extreme fear
   The Crypto Fear & Greed Index measures the overall sentiment of the cryptocurrency market on a scale from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). We are currently in ‘extreme fear,’ meaning investors are generally pessimistic and cautious about the market.

   What this means: Crypto bull cycles historically end in periods of extreme greed and euphoria, followed by sharp corrections. And new bull cycles usually start when the market is in a state of fear or extreme pessimism, which sets the stage for accumulation and eventual price recovery. So we are seeing the opposite conditions on the index to what we’d normally associate with the top of a cycle. 

2. The US government shutdown has ended. 
   The US shutdown lasted 43 days, during which time key economic data, regulatory reviews, and approvals were effectively paused. Not great for market momentum! Now that the government has reopened, regulators can clear the backlog, resume approvals, and move forward on legislation, which may help reignite market activity.

   What this means: The end of the shutdown removes a major block slowing market progress and sets the stage for more supportive conditions in crypto markets. In the past when the US government reopened after a shutdown, markets reacted very strongly. In 2013, Bitcoin rallied over 200% in the month after the shutdown ended, and over 480% in the three months that followed (noting Bitcoin was much smaller back then). After the 2018–19 shutdown, Bitcoin first dipped, then rebounded around 50% over the next three months, outperforming traditional markets.

3. Tax cuts from the ‘big beautiful bill’ start in January
   The ‘big beautiful bill’ is a nickname for a large US tax law, which changes how much federal tax people and businesses pay and how some credits and deductions work. It has been marketed as giving the ‘largest tax cut in American history’ to workers and families.

   What this means: When people get tax cuts, it effectively adds extra money into the system, which has often supported risk assets like stocks and crypto. It doesn’t guarantee prices will go up, but it is one of several macro tailwinds that can help sustain a bull market rather than end it.

4. More rate cuts are on the table
   The US Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates more in the near future. This usually makes borrowing cheaper and encourages spending and investment.

   What this means: Across previous market cycles, a shift from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing (money printing) has generally increased liquidity and supported strong rallies. When central banks cut rates or add more money into the system, markets usually rise — and crypto tends to benefit even more.

5. Jerome Powell’s term as Chair of the Federal Reserve is ending in May 
   Trump is known to have a strained relationship with Powell and publicly criticised his stance on interest rates. Once Powell is out, Trump is expected to appoint a Fed Chair who aligns more closely with his monetary policy preferences

   What this means: If Trump does what everyone expects him to and appoints a Fed Chair who favours cutting interest rates, it could lead to easier monetary conditions, which historically creates a more positive environment for risk assets like stocks and crypto.​​

6. Altcoins are extremely oversold
   This can happen when investors lose confidence or move funds out of riskier assets. However, these conditions have historically preceded strong rebounds, not cycle endings.

   What this means: altcoins being this cheap can offer buying opportunities, and these conditions are something we normally see before big recoveries — not at the end of a bull run.

7. S&P 500 at all-time highs
   The S&P 500 reached all-time highs in December and has been trading close to these record levels, reflecting strong market confidence despite some volatility.​

   What this means: The S&P 500 reaching all-time highs indicates strong risk appetite among investors. Since around 2020, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have shown a strong positive correlation. When the stock market rallies to new highs, Bitcoin often follows because both benefit from a ‘risk-on’ environment.

8. Gold at all-time highs
   Similarly, when gold peaks, it often signals capital preparing to rotate into higher-risk assets like Bitcoin.

   What this means: investors often move from safe assets (like gold) into higher-growth assets (like crypto) once confidence increases.

9. M2 money supply at record highs
   M2 is a broad measure of how much money is circulating in the economy, including cash, bank deposits, and easily accessible funds. When M2 rises, it usually indicates expanding liquidity, which has historically aligned with strong periods in risk assets like crypto.

   What this means: there’s more money moving around in the system — and rising liquidity tends to lift risk assets like Bitcoin (which in turn lifts the broader crypto market). 

10. ISM manufacturing is at ‘range lows’
    ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing is a key economic indicator that measures the health of the manufacturing sector and broader economic momentum. When ISM hits range lows, it often signals that a bottom is forming and that policy may soon shift from tightening to support.

    What this means: weak manufacturing data often leads to stimulus — and stimulus usually boosts markets.

11. The copper–gold ratio has bottomed at extreme levels
    The copper-gold ratio measures the price of copper relative to gold, where copper represents economic growth and risk appetite because it’s widely used in industry, while gold acts as a ‘safe haven’ asset during times of uncertainty. When this ratio rises, it signals investor confidence and economic expansion, whereas a falling ratio indicates caution and a preference for safety.

    What this means: For crypto investors, the copper-gold ratio helps gauge the general market mood. A rising ratio indicates growing risk appetite (good for crypto) and a falling ratio signals caution and risk aversion.

12. This cycle is being driven by the business cycle, not a four-year clock
    As mentioned in part 1, global liquidity and debt-refinancing patterns have pushed the typical four-year rhythm out of alignment, and the market now appears to be following a broader macro cycle.

    What this means: this bull run isn’t broken, it’s just following a more expanded timeline to previous bull cycles. 

13. A US$12.5 trillion retirement market is now open to Bitcoin
    Large pension funds and retirement plans can now legally invest a portion of their vast assets into Bitcoin through ETFs. Several major funds have started allocating to Bitcoin, bringing even more stability and consistent demand to the crypto market.

    What this means: A huge pool of long-term, slow-moving money can now flow into Bitcoin. This creates a long-term demand engine and steady buying pressure from patient institutional investors.

14. ETFs for Bitcoin and a growing number of altcoins
    ETFs (exchange-traded funds) for Bitcoin and some altcoins have made it much easier for big institutional investors like hedge funds, pension funds, and large corporations to buy and hold crypto. This has built what’s called ‘institutional rails’, or infrastructure, that supports ongoing and consistent demand for crypto assets.

    What this means: Crypto markets have become less dependent on retail investors alone and are benefiting from steady, large-scale capital inflows. This equates to more stability and potential for growth in the market because institutional money tends to bring long-term interest and reduces dramatic price swings. 

15. An old CME gap around US$92k has effectively been filled
    A CME gap is a price gap that appears on the Bitcoin futures chart traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Because the CME closes on weekends while crypto markets trade 24/7, if Bitcoin’s price moves significantly over a weekend, a gap forms between the CME’s Friday close and the next opening price on Sunday. Traders pay attention to these gaps because historically Bitcoin tends to ‘fill’ them, meaning the price often moves back to cover the gap area later. Filling a gap is important as it resolves a technical imbalance and often signals a strong support level where buyers may step in, stabilising the price and encouraging renewed upward momentum.

    What this means: Filling the old CME gap around US$92,000 signals a key technical balance has been restored, which can help Bitcoin prices stabilise and potentially begin moving higher as buyers gain confidence in this support zone. 

16. Warren Buffett’s firm investing into Alphabet (Google)
    Berkshire Hathaway recently invested nearly US$5 billion into Google’s parent company, Alphabet. This is significant because Berkshire usually avoids tech stocks.
    What this means: A big, conservative investor backing a tech giant like Alphabet often attracts more institutional interest and supports strength across the tech sector. Because crypto tends to move in line with tech, this confidence can spill over into the broader market.

17. Stimulus cheques are being openly discussed for 2026
    There is talk about sending $2,000 stimulus cheques to Americans in mid-2026.

    What this means: when people receive cash from the government, some of it often finds its way into markets like crypto. In the past, stimulus cheques have had a noticeably positive effect on crypto markets.

18. The ‘death cross’ has not behaved like a traditional crash signal in this cycle
    As we discovered in part 1, the death cross does not always correlate to downward movement. The price action around this crossover hasn’t shown the sharp breakdowns that are associated with final tops.

    What this means: even though the technical pattern appeared, it didn’t cause the kind of crash that we would normally associate with a top.

19. None of the classic ‘top of bull run’ indicators have triggered
    Our most reliable crypto market indicators aren’t showing the usual signs of a bull market ending. In past cycles, we’d see clear warnings before a peak, such as extreme greed, falling volumes, or momentum breaking down. None of those signals are present right now.

    What this means: The usual signs that the bull run is ending simply aren’t here.

20. There was no true euphoria
    Major tops are marked by mania and mainstream frenzy, and we simply haven’t seen that yet.

    What this means: bull markets end in excitement — and we haven’t come close to that level of hype yet.

As you can see, when you step back and look at this list with evidence rather than emotion, crypto has never had a better foundation to flourish. It’s simply a timing game now.

We all know headlines chase clicks and they’re designed to play on our emotions, rather than offer objective truth. That’s why I always encourage people to zoom out and focus on education. In my experience, when you look beyond what the headline is shouting, and apply a logical lens, you get a much more balanced view of what is happening in this crypto market.

In part 3, I’ll talk about what all of this means for you as an investor, and how you can navigate it  without letting fear dictate your strategy.