Is this cycle different? A deep dive 🔍

We’ve all been hearing it, so let’s tackle the question on everyone’s mind:

Is this cycle different?

There’s a lot of chatter about this on influencer channels. Some say the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is dead, others claim we’re going to have a bull market much later than anticipated. Some even say the altcoin market is finished, and the rally is over before it even began.

The noise can get pretty intense at times!

Many of these takes stem from the fact that altcoins haven’t had their explosive pumps yet. Others? They’re optimising for clickbait and engagement rather than truth.

So what is the truth?

That’s exactly what we’re diving into today. But first, let’s set the stage.

What is the four-year Bitcoin cycle 

Historically, crypto follows a predictable pattern tied to the Bitcoin halving events, which happen roughly every four years. It’s where mining rewards for Bitcoin are halved, supply tightens, and scarcity drives prices higher.

This cycle has played out predictably in previous cycles – 2013, 2017, and 2020-2021. First Bitcoin hits new all-time highs, then Ethereum begins to take off, then altcoin mania sets in and finally we reach peak euphoria.

After that, the inevitable bear market returns, resetting the cycle.

We had the last Bitcoin halving in April 2024, and we’re still operating within this framework at its core.

So why does this cycle feel different?

In my opinion, there are a few factors at play:

1. The market is bigger and liquidity is stretched

There are exponentially more cryptos today than in the last cycle – yet altcoin liquidity hasn’t changed that much. It’s the same amount of money spread across thousands more coins, so there are significantly more options for capital to flow into.

2. The market is more mature 

Crypto isn’t the wild west anymore – in fact, the ecosystem has evolved significantly. Today, we have more sophisticated infrastructure, better exchanges, improved custody solutions, and a growing (albeit sometimes heavy-handed) regulatory framework. These changes mean that while retail FOMO still happens, it’s less unhinged.

This maturing landscape gives crypto a much stronger foundation from which to flourish in this cycle and beyond.

3. The SEC’s damage still lingers 

The SEC spent the last few years on an absolute rampage against crypto. They stifled innovation, drove builders away, blocked TradFi integration and delayed mainstream adoption. The constant legal action against crypto founders and companies damaged public trust and slowed growth in some of our most promising sectors from the last bull run (such as the DeFi space).

Having said that, we now have a crypto-friendly administration in the US which has already made major changes that will benefit this space. The damage of the past is slowly being undone, and the momentum is shifting.

4. Institutional money is changing the game

In 2024 the Bitcoin ETFs were unleashed on the world and billions of dollars of capital flowed in. Historically, Bitcoin rallies have always sparked a wealth effect where investors cash out gains and rotate them into altcoins. This is what kickstarts altseason. But this cycle? The money is stickier. Institutional investors aren’t chasing 100x altcoin pumps like retail investors do. They’re here for Bitcoin’s stability and narrative as a macro asset. ETF flows reflect this: billions into BTC, but altcoins stayed relatively quiet.

So why the disconnect?

Because institutions prioritise liquidity, regulatory clarity, and lower risk. Bitcoin checks those boxes – altcoins, less so.

The good news? ETF applications are now underway for a growing number of altcoins, which could see capital rotating from bitcoin gains into these newly legitimised assets.

5. The memecoin frenzy

Memecoins have always been the lottery tickets of crypto, but platforms like Pump.fun on Solana have taken the craze to a whole new level. With low barriers to entry, anyone can launch a memecoin, drive hype, and either send it to the moon or rug unsuspecting investors.

According to a CoinGecko report, memecoins captured nearly 31% of investor interest in 2024 – a huge jump from previous years. Memecoins have siphoned liquidity and investor attention away from areas like DeFi, GameFi, and even some layer-1 blockchain ecosystems.

However!

Recent high-profile rug pulls have highlighted the dangers associated with memecoins. In my opinion, we’re potentially going to see a strong rotation away from the memecoin casino and into projects with real utility.

6. Interest rates and liquidity

Previous crypto bull runs thrived in low-interest-rate environments that encouraged speculative investment. We saw it in the post-2008 recovery (rates near 0% until 2015, fuelling the 2017 run) and the post-COVID stimulus period (rates at 0-0.25% from March 2020, sparking the 2020-2021 surge). These cycles were amplified by direct liquidity injections. In fact, stimulus checks put cash in retail hands, some of which flowed into crypto.

Approximately $9.2 trillion of government debt is set to mature in 2025, constituting about 25% of the total national debt. The US will have to refinance this debt, which means dropping interest rates and ending quantitative tightening (i.e. turning the money printers back on).

So as you can see, there are factors at play this year that we may not have had in previous cycles. But nothing we’ve seen indicates that we will miss out on altseason and the exponential growth phase of this bull market.

In fact, people claiming this cycle is over before it begins are overlooking one key fact:

We are not due for all-time highs at this point in the cycle.

The very fact that we’re not in euphoria confirms that we’re following the historical pattern.

Let’s look at the numbers:

As you can see, each cycle has taken longer to reach its top.

Where do we currently sit in this cycle? We are 368 days post-halving.

According to this data, we’re currently on track for a peak around November 2025. We could see a slight extension of this into 2026, which would also be consistent with what the pattern above is showing us.

This has happened before 

The catalysts and macro conditions are always going to be different each cycle, but the psychology is always the same: fear and greed still rule.

Every crypto cycle has events that jolt sentiment, test investor resolve, and often precede or amplify the exponential growth phase. They shake the confidence of the market, and cause people to feel uncertain.

It happens every cycle without fail.

But this year? The collection of bullish catalysts are beyond anything we’ve ever seen before.

I know it can be uncomfortable, and many investors are becoming impatient, but this is the game we sign up for when we invest in crypto. That’s why we encourage you to do your own assessments when it comes to risk. This is a highly speculative asset class. It’s also the highest appreciating asset class in human history.

We don’t get all this without the volatility.

If you find yourself worried about the market, my advice is to zoom out, take a break from the noise, and come back when the market begins to return. Years from now, we could look back on this cycle as the moment crypto truly went mainstream. You don’t want to look back with regret.