Is the crypto cycle changing? 🤔

What a week it has been!

The classic crypto volatility has been in full swing recently, and new investors could be wondering what they’ve got themselves into!

Even those who have been here awhile, can still sometimes feel like this:

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But whether you’re a seasoned investor, or someone who has just discovered this asset class, I want to reassure you that dips and red candles don’t mean crypto is broken. We’ve seen moves like this many times before, and will likely see them again. The volatility is simply part and parcel of crypto investing.

In fact, we don’t get the incredible gains without it!

Now, in case you missed it, Raoul Pal, a respected and well-known macro analyst, dropped a bit of a bombshell idea this week. He believes the classic 4-year Bitcoin and crypto cycle may be shifting to 5 years.

His reasoning? Two key factors:
• The ISM (Institute for Supply Management index), which tracks the broader business cycle.
• A change in how the US government manages its debt.

Back in 2021/22, the US Treasury quietly extended the weighted average maturity of its debt from 4 years to 5. That means the cycle of refinancing (and the liquidity waves that come with it)  now run on a slightly longer timeline. Pal argues that because Bitcoin’s price has historically been tied to both the business cycle and global liquidity, this pushes out the expected bull market peak into Q2 2026, instead of 2025 as many have been anticipating.

Some analysts share Pal’s view, while others hold firmly to the 4-year playbook. Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle has always been the backbone of crypto’s rhythm. However, as the asset class matures, macro policy and liquidity flows are becoming just as powerful.

So where does that leave us as investors?

If you’re already fully allocated, your number one skill right now is patience. That means no panic selling, no doom-scrolling, and definitely no emotional reactions to red candles. You’ve done the work, you’ve built your portfolio, now it’s about holding steady and letting the cycle play out. This is not the time to quit, or get shaken out of your positions.

And if you’re not yet fully allocated? Congratulations because this market has just handed you an incredible gift: more time to dollar-cost average at great prices.

Remember, the quality coins you’ve invested in haven’t changed on a fundamental level – same tech, same utility, same value proposition – but now they’re essentially on flash sale. Which offers a fantastic opportunity to lower your average buy price (something your future self will thank you for).

The truth is, no one has a crystal ball and no one knows exactly when the cycle will peak. The four-year cycle has held strong through many black swan events and even a global pandemic, so will this time really be different? Nobody knows for sure.

What we do know is that the path is always volatile and the short-term picture always messy. But zoom out, and the pattern is crystal clear:

Every cycle has delivered extraordinary upside for those who stayed the course.

In my opinion, whether the cycle peak comes in a few weeks, or a few months, the strategy doesn’t change. Remove emotion, dollar cost average into quality projects, and have your selling plan in place so you’re ready to act when the time comes.