How’s your crypto journey going? If this is your first market cycle, I’m sure you’ve found it a roller-coaster ride!
After all the volatility, I want to share a message of hope with you.
Believe it or not, we are still on track for the bull market of 2024!
Why do I think this?
Because I believe we’ve hit what’s known as ‘the bottoming’ AKA the bottom of a particular market cycle. It’s when the price hits the floor and the sentiment hits an absolute depression phase.
Are you feeling it?
However, the thing about the depression phase is that it’s actually good news.
If we take a look at each previous crypto market cycle, we can see that the bottoming always happens 750-1,000 days after a Bitcoin halving event, (watch YouTube videos on this if you’re not sure what it is).
While some have speculated that Bitcoin would go down to US$14K, I personally believe we’ve already hit the bottom (triggered by the FTX fiasco) and that $14k is not going to happen now.
So what comes after the bottoming?
Historically, a 150 day rally! We’ve seen it play out in 2012, 2016 and 2020. As you can imagine, this is very bullish news.
After 150 days, we usually see the price drop for a short period of time, then it goes sideways for approximately 3-6 months. I believe we’re currently in that period right now.
And then? We’ll see a 3-6 month rally, before we start the cycle again.
If you’re wondering how I know this, the answer is simple; these cycles are a normal part of crypto investing. In fact, they’re so well-known they’ve been epitomised in this chart called the Wall Street Cheat Sheet.
The chart demonstrates just how predictably volatile the market is, and that fluctuations are all part of the game. The euphoric state (where all your coins are going to the moon) is actually the point of maximum financial risk. The ‘anger and depression’ phase where are are now is the point of maximum financial opportunity.
Understanding the psychology of market cycles will help ease your mind when the market does its thing. Because if you can master your emotions, and use logic and education to override fear, you master the crypto game.
Whilst nothing is set in stone, the historical data can provide us with a tentative timeline of how this will all play out:
June 2023 – we saw the start of 3-6 month sideways movement.
January 2024 – we see upward movement as we prepare for the Bitcoin Halving
Mid 2024 – the moment we’ve all been waiting for – the next major bull market!
Remember, crypto is impermanent in every aspect. It’s never going to stay where it is for eternity. If you’ve come this far, you just need to wait a little while longer. Have patience, sit back and watch the game play out. I promise it will be worth the wait.
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