Let’s talk – part 1: Is it over? 🤔

As we wrap up 2025, I wanted to take a moment to share some thoughts around the market and potentially what we could expect leading into 2026.

In this special 3-part series, I’m going to walk you through what we at DWG are seeing behind the scenes. Because we’re not going off headlines or emotion – we’re looking at the micro, macro and fundamental indicators that give us a wider lens. These indicators are the reason we have confidence in what we’re telling investors, and why we keep repeating the one thing no one wants to hear right now: ‘Patience’

So let’s start with why people think this bull market could be over…

Right now, there are generally two bearish indicators that are pointed to as proof that the crypto bull market is done. Let’s unpack them.

1. The Bitcoin Death Cross 

A ‘death cross’ is the name given to a particular chart pattern that signals a potential downturn or trend reversal. It happens when Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average drops below its 200-day moving average. (The 50-day average reflects the short-term trend, while the 200-day average reflects the long-term trend).

When the 50-day, or short-term trend, is well above the 200-day, or long term trend, it typically signifies a strong market. When it breaks below and stays there, it can be interpreted as a weakening market. It has historically been used to mark some cycle tops.

In the last few weeks, that 50-day line dropped below the 200-day line, which is why you saw so many scary headlines about the ‘Bitcoin Death Cross’.

But here is the important context you need to know. The death cross has marked cycle tops before – but not in every instance. 

Let’s look at the data:

• In early 2014, Bitcoin flashed a death cross at roughly the mid‑US$300s, and instead of crashing immediately, it rallied strongly afterwards, rising 50-70% in the following months.​
• In early September 2014, another death cross formed around the US$480 level, and this time the market did trend lower over the next several months, with drawdowns of around 40% within a year.​
• In late March 2018, a death cross appeared after the blow‑off top of the 2017 cycle, and while there was a brief bounce, it ultimately preceded a more prolonged downturn. ​
• In mid‑June 2021, Bitcoin printed another daily death cross following the May 2021 crash. That didn’t mark the end of the cycle at all. In fact, the market went on to hit a new all-time high later that year.
• And now, in the current cycle, we’ve seen the same indicator appear again. But this time, we’re in a very different macro environment compared to previous cycles.

What the data is clearly showing is that the death cross is not a guarantee of a cycle ending, it’s simply one piece of information. In a market as fast-moving and macro-driven as crypto, no single indicator should ever be treated as the deciding factor.

Investors who are new to crypto can sometimes panic when they see the death cross discussed online. It sounds definitive. It has the word ‘death’ in it. But in reality, it’s far more nuanced. As you’ll see in Part 2, it needs to be read alongside the bigger picture, the broader macro forces, and the unique characteristics of each cycle.

In other words: the death cross is worth understanding, but it isn’t a reason, on its own, to assume the bull market is over.

Now let’s look at the other big factor people are worried about when it comes to this bull cycle: the timing.

2. The Four-Year Cycle 

There’s a capitulation happening right now amongst people who held strongly to the 4-year cycle narrative. They figure, if it hasn’t happened by now in the exact timing as previous cycles, it must be over, right?

Well, let’s take a look.

On one hand, we have a historical timeframe for these cycles, that is true. But on the other, we have this undeniable evidence from macro that we just can’t ignore. So we have two major narratives playing out in real time.

Historically we’ve seen:

• A strong run-up after the halving
• A euphoric blow-off top
• A deep bear market
• A long accumulation phase
• Then the next cycle begins

….. All unfolding within a 4-year window.

However, the more institutional money that flows into this market, the more extended each cycle becomes. Why? Because institutions are not emotional investors. They move big capital, have longer time horizons and their behaviour naturally smooths out the volatility in the assets they accumulate.

But the other reason this four-year cycle hasn’t repeated perfectly is because crypto is now influenced by the broader business cycle, not just the halving. And part of that comes down to what’s happening with US government debt.

Here’s the simple version.

The US government regularly refinances its debt – think of it like rolling over a home loan when the fixed term ends. We got used to this happening within a certain timeframe, but in recent years, the US Treasury extended the average time before this debt has to be refinanced. This means some refinancing that would normally happen sooner is now happening later.

Why does this matter for markets like crypto?

Because large refinancing waves often create pressure on governments and central banks to add more liquidity into the system. And liquidity is one of the biggest drivers of asset prices, including crypto.

So instead of getting a major liquidity boost earlier — as we saw in past four-year cycles — that pressure has been delayed. This is one of the key reasons this current cycle isn’t aligning with previous ones. The liquidity wave simply hasn’t arrived yet. That liquidity arriving, in the form of money printing, will have a deep impact on these markets, like it has every time before.

This is where we are very likely seeing the evolution of the four-year cycle, and the impact that institutions and macro events have on it.

In summary: 

We have seen the break below the 50-day moving average, no one is denying that.

We have seen timelines become extended, and we’ve explored the reasons for that.

But what we have not seen are the many other factors, including the euphoric phase, that have marked previous crypto cycle tops. Instead, what we’re seeing is panic, doubt, and new investors questioning whether they should have entered the market at all.

None of this is end-of-cycle behaviour.

I understand that some investors have very strong attachments to the 4-year timeframe, and it can make it harder to see the broader bullish forces at play right now. But the truth is, I wouldn’t be doing this work if I didn’t genuinely believe in the opportunity that crypto presents. The macro forces are having more of an influence than we anticipated this cycle, but that doesn’t mean it’s over. In my view, the fundamentals are giving us one of the strongest setups we’ve seen in years.

But you don’t have to take my word for it. 

In part two, I will share with you 20 key indicators that DWG is looking at behind the scenes, and why none of them point to this cycle being over.