The thing about uncertainty is that many asset classes have it – from property development and private equity, to shares, commodities, and even running a business. Yet crypto is the one that seems to trigger the most anxiety.

A lot of it comes down to crypto’s early reputation. Before institutional involvement and clearer frameworks, crypto’s perception was shaped by pure volatility and negative media narratives. The industry has well and truly matured since then, but the perception hasn’t fully caught up.

Which means crypto carries reputational baggage that other assets simply don’t have.

Take property, for instance. Anyone who has been involved in building a home knows that development delays are normal. The final outcome can look very different from what was originally planned.

Even shareholder investing has uncertainty, where a product launch could get pushed back, a key executive departs or earnings fluctuate more than anticipated.

Investors tolerate variation in these asset classes much better than they do crypto.

So how can we apply some of that same tolerance to the crypto market?

It starts with recognising that deviation and uncertainty in these markets are not a failure. Uncertainty doesn’t mean something is inherently wrong, it usually means you’re dealing with something early and evolving.

This is historically where the biggest returns happen.

In my opinion, crypto has something other asset classes don’t – incredible, future-facing technology and the potential for substantial growth over time.

So ask yourself: ‘Is my crypto project broken? Or has the timeline just shifted?’

If the fundamentals remain intact, then patience becomes your greatest ally. Because uncertainty is something to navigate, it’s not something to fear.

The post Every asset class has this problem. Crypto gets blamed for it. appeared first on Digital Wealth Group.

“I’ve watched all the mindset trainings… but now they don’t matter because the market hasn’t moved.”

And it caught me a little by surprise.

That’s not to say I don’t understand where the feeling comes from. After all, markets test patience, waiting tests conviction and uncertainty tests everything else!

But the deeper truth about mindset is this: it isn’t built when things are easy.

A positive money mindset is something many investors strive for. But the reality is, it’s not forged when the market is going up and everything feels obvious.

After all, it’s easy to feel confident and positive when everything is green.

Your mindset is revealed when the market pauses, when uncertainty is high, when timelines extend, and when patience becomes the hardest skill of all. That’s when the framework you’ve built either holds you steady – or it doesn’t.

The truth is, markets have a very interesting way of revealing the conversations we’re having with ourselves.

Do we trust our decisions?
Do we panic when timelines stretch?
Do we become reactive when outcomes are delayed?

Because here is something worth remembering: Your framework for thinking becomes your framework for living…(One of my favourites!)

If your internal world is chaotic, impatient and fearful, it becomes very difficult for the external world to feel calm, clear and successful. But when your internal state is grounded, patient and focused, you move through uncertainty very differently.

The outside world often reflects the state of the inside one.

Simply said:

If we don’t have a positive space within us, it becomes very hard to create one around us.

This is why mindset matters so much.

I often talk about the concept of wealth initiations in my Money Mindset training sessions with DWG students.

And initiations are rarely comfortable.

They stretch you.
They test you.
They ask you to become someone slightly stronger than you were before.

But the interesting thing about initiations that you almost never recognise them while they’re happening. It’s not until later that you realise the challenge was actually the training.

So if you find yourself feeling impatient, uncertain, or questioning things right now, know that you’re not alone.

But please don’t immediately assume something is wrong.

Remember, all markets move in cycles, even when they pause longer than we expect. But the psychological side of investing doesn’t pause with them.

So stay grounded, stay educated and stay connected to the reasons you began in the first place. Because the mindset you are building now isn’t just shaping how you experience this market – it is shaping the investor, and the person, you are becoming.

The post I was really surprised by this email appeared first on Digital Wealth Group.

It’s understandable to feel disheartened by it all, and I’ll address the growing frustration from investors in an upcoming email; but today, I want to shift the focus slightly and ask a different question:

If price action isn’t positive right now, what is?

The answer is – quite a lot, if you know where to look!

In this email, I’m going to share a quick snapshot of a few things I’ve noticed over the last week. I see this as further confirmation that crypto and blockchain adoption are moving forward in the background, even if it’s not making its way onto your feed. This isn’t about hopium or short-term predictions; it’s simply about sharing what I’m seeing on the ground, so you have a balanced view of what’s happening beneath the surface.

Let’s start with tokenisation.

If you’re unfamiliar with the concept of tokenisation, it’s taking real-world assets and representing them as digital tokens on a blockchain. When you hold that token, you hold a verifiable claim to the underlying asset. This lowers barriers to entry, opens up 24/7 markets, makes fractional ownership possible and makes liquidity far easier to access.

In short, it takes everything we know about traditional investing and flips it on its head.

DWG have been talking about tokenisation since 2017, but based on recent news, data and institutional conversations, it looks to be moving into the spotlight and could be one of the more promising crypto sectors in 2026.

We know that tokenisation featured heavily in discussions at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos. Which means big players are definitely interested. But here’s the important part: It’s not being framed as a future idea or experimental tech, it’s being discussed in the context of necessary financial infrastructure.

So that alone is huge.

But in addition to that, the New York Stock Exchange – the most established and conservative financial market in the world – has announced plans to bring tokenised stocks and ETFs onto blockchain rails.

So what does this tell us? Well, TradFi giants don’t like to speculate; they make moves when a shift is unavoidable. For them to explore blockchain infrastructure is almost like an admission that the old ways are truly outdated and blockchain is a better solution.

At the same time, Token Terminal has revealed that the market value of tokenised euro assets has reached a historic high of $1.1 billion. That’s double the high of the previous year. All that growth needs reliable, battle-tested blockchain infrastructure underneath it.

Which brings us to Ethereum.

According to recent data, around 65% of tokenised assets currently live on the Ethereum blockchain. Global financial institutions increasingly choose it as their base layer, and BlackRock’s BUIDL fund (tokenised US Treasuries that started Ethereum-native and now runs multi-chain) still primarily operates on Ethereum. In fact, Larry Fink, BlackRock’s CEO, publicly hinted at needing “one common blockchain” when it comes to digitised assets.

So why isn’t it being reflected in the price?

Because, as frustrating as it is for investors, price doesn’t always lead. Often, infrastructure, usage and positioning move first – and price catches up later.

It brings to mind a saying: Price is what you pay – value is what you get.

The truth is, if we look beyond price and focus on recent Ethereum network activity, a very different picture emerges. Over the past week, Ethereum hit three new all-time highs:

• Highest number of transactions in a single day

• Highest number of new wallets over a 30-day period

• Highest amount of ETH ever staked

These metrics point to people building, transacting, and locking value into Ethereum – even while market sentiment remains cautious.

So while it can be frustrating waiting for price to catch up, important things continue to happen beneath the surface. Remember, this is just a snapshot of one sector and one blockchain – not the whole story. I share these updates to remind you that even in periods of fear or impatience, progress keeps moving forward.

And as world-class investor Charlie Munger would say 
“The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting”. 

The post If price isn’t moving, what is? 👀 appeared first on Digital Wealth Group.

If you’ve entered the crypto market anytime in the last few years, you’re likely itching for this bull run to ignite. Many expected a 2025 peak, and this cycle extension has caught us a little off guard. So I’ll address the question a lot of investors are probably asking right now.

What is crypto actually waiting for? 

The truth is, I can give you the short answer in one word: liquidity!

The longer answer comes down to three key components:

1. Where liquidity comes from

2. Why it’s been delayed this cycle

3. What that means for the next phase of the market

So let’s unpack it properly.

First, what is liquidity (in plain English)?
The term ‘liquidity’ simply refers to the amount of money available to flow into assets.

When liquidity is abundant, money moves easily into things like shares, property and crypto. It’s when risk appetite for investors increases and prices in markets tend to rise. But on the flipside, when liquidity tightens, the environment becomes cautious, investors sit on their hands and risk assets (which crypto is classified as) tend to stall or even pull back.

I’m sure you can relate if you think about your own finances. When you’ve got surplus cash, you’re more comfortable investing, spending or taking a bit of risk. But when money feels tight, you naturally pull back and become more cautious with your spending. Markets behave in a similar way, just on a much bigger scale.

So when people ask ‘why hasn’t the bull market started yet?’, what they’re really asking is ‘why hasn’t liquidity returned yet?’

Which brings us to the next piece.

Where does liquidity come from?
Liquidity is largely driven by central bank and government policy, especially in the US. And what happens there usually ripples through global markets, including Australia.

Over the last few years, central banks have been in ‘fight mode’ against inflation, which jumped to its highest levels seen in decades around 2021–2022. To try to bring prices back under control, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and others all started lifting interest rates quickly, and at roughly the same time.​ So in simple terms, they made borrowing more expensive almost everywhere at once. That’s resulted in:

– Higher interest rates
– Less easy money and liquidity in the system
– A reduced appetite for risk

This tightening phase has dragged on longer than many expected, and it’s felt particularly restrictive, especially for investors who’ve lived through previous cycles. In the past, liquidity started flowing much earlier in the cycle. This time, it didn’t.

So why were the liquidity injections delayed?

To understand that, we need to zoom out and look at the broader business cycle.

How the bigger picture shapes markets
Historically, Bitcoin halving events have been followed by a fairly predictable pattern that eventually led to bull market peaks. But this cycle collided with a very different macro environment. Instead of rate cuts and stimulus, which we’d normally expect to see by this stage. We got:

– Inflation sticking around longer than expected
– High interest rates staying in place
– Central banks delaying any meaningful easing

In other words, the business cycle itself was pushed back, giving us a more extended cycle.

So when is liquidity actually expected to return?
This is the part everyone wants a date for, and the honest answer is that liquidity doesn’t come back because we’ve circled a date on our calendar. We’re largely waiting for governments and central banks, and the typical path goes something like this:

• Inflation has to cool off enough that central banks feel safe easing up.

• Economic growth slows, so they don’t need sky-high rates anymore.

• Interest rates stop climbing, maybe even start dipping with some cuts. That’s when liquidity (the easy money floating around) can start to build behind the scenes.

• Riskier investments like stocks or crypto usually perk up in response.​

The good news is that crypto doesn’t tend to sit around waiting until the final part of this sequence. In fact, prices have often jumped ahead of time, just on the expectation that better times are coming. So it can feel a little boring, and like we’re waiting around for nothing, but under the surface, conditions are gradually shifting.

What this means for crypto investors
In my opinion, the exciting part of this bull market has not been cancelled; it’s simply been delayed. Which means if you’ve just joined the crypto market, you have been given the gift of time that many never anticipated.

And for those of us who are already positioned? We have the choice: accumulate more of our chosen cryptos, or simply wait a bit longer for the cycle to play out.

As always, our focus remains on education over emotion, context over noise, and understanding what’s happening behind the scenes, not just what prices are doing today. This market doesn’t often reward impatience, but it does reward preparation.

With that said, I hope you’ve had a great start to the new year and are feeling optimistic about what’s ahead for 2026. I believe it’s going to be a fantastic year for investors.

The post What is crypto waiting for? 🤷‍♀️ appeared first on Digital Wealth Group.

But first, a reality check. We need to be honest about crypto.

We have all invested in an asset class that is unlike anything else in the market:

It moves faster and more violently (in both directions) 

Deep corrections are normal, even inside bull markets

It offers asymmetric upside that no other asset can compete with 

There will always be a narrative trying to manipulate your emotions

This is the game that we, as investors, have agreed to play when we invest in this thing called cryptocurrencies. The volatility is the price we pay for gains, and those gains have historically come in a much shorter timeframe when compared to other asset classes. In fact, no other asset class on the planet gives us the amount of upside and asymmetric opportunity that crypto does.

At DWG, we aim to educate our members so they feel comfortable with the risk vs reward and confident with how to navigate this space. We do this by looking at history, reliable indicators, and micro and macro fundamentals to make informed decisions about investments. In my opinion, the backdrop right now looks nothing like the classic end of a multi-year cycle. But it does look like the kind of environment where emotional decisions can do more damage than the market itself.

This is not what I want for investors.

If you’re feeling yourself slipping into fear about this bull market, our advice is always to step back, take a breath and zoom out. And if you’re looking for ways to keep more grounded, here are some principles we encourage our community to come back to in times like this.

1. Separate ‘price ’ from ‘value’
Price pain doesn’t always feel great, but it doesn’t mean your thesis is wrong. There was a reason you invested in that crypto in the first place, and we have to remember that:

• Bitcoin is becoming a macro asset held by governments, institutions, ETFs, and retirement funds

• Blockchains are being integrated into finance, AI, and real-world assets

• We are still early in that adoption curve

The opportunity has not disappeared, and neither has the utility on your favourite crypto projects. They are just reflecting sale prices right now. More sellers than buyers may pull the price down, but it does not change the utility of that crypto.

Ask yourself: is my Crypto fundamentally broken? Or are there simply more sellers than buyers as we speak?

In other words. A patience thing.

2. Don’t sell purely to stop the emotional discomfort
It’s human to want the bad feeling to end, and selling can sometimes give us a temporary sense of relief. The key word being temporary.

The problem is, if you sell into extreme fear, you lock in losses and remove yourself from any recovery. And getting back in later usually happens at higher prices, when it ‘feels safe’ again

If you are considering selling, have a clear, non-emotional reason for it. The last thing you want is to look back and regret selling the assets based on emotion.

3. Revisit your sizing and diversification
If you’re losing sleep about this crypto market, that’s useful information because it may mean:

• You’re over-allocated to crypto relative to your true risk tolerance

• You’re too concentrated in speculative altcoins

• You don’t have enough cash or defensive assets for your personal situation

Rather than panic-selling everything, use this as feedback to gradually move towards a portfolio that you can live with through volatility, not just in the good times. This means knowing what you are holding and what purpose it serves in the crypto and broader financial ecosystem.

Your edge as an investor is your ability to stay calm, think long-term, and not succumb to emotional decisions by short-term price moves.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this special 3-part series and gained more clarity around what’s really happening beneath the surface. Always remember to apply logic and education over emotion. When you zoom out, the bigger forces still point to this being a powerful chapter in a much larger story — one that’s still unfolding.

The post Let’s talk – part 3: How to navigate this calmly 🧘 appeared first on Digital Wealth Group.

A lot of people want one easy, cookie-cutter response to why the market isn’t moving right now, when the truth is, there isn’t just one reason. But what we do have are 20 key points to explore…

So let’s take a look.

1. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at extreme fear
   The Crypto Fear & Greed Index measures the overall sentiment of the cryptocurrency market on a scale from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed). We are currently in ‘extreme fear,’ meaning investors are generally pessimistic and cautious about the market.

   What this means: Crypto bull cycles historically end in periods of extreme greed and euphoria, followed by sharp corrections. And new bull cycles usually start when the market is in a state of fear or extreme pessimism, which sets the stage for accumulation and eventual price recovery. So we are seeing the opposite conditions on the index to what we’d normally associate with the top of a cycle. 

2. The US government shutdown has ended. 
   The US shutdown lasted 43 days, during which time key economic data, regulatory reviews, and approvals were effectively paused. Not great for market momentum! Now that the government has reopened, regulators can clear the backlog, resume approvals, and move forward on legislation, which may help reignite market activity.

   What this means: The end of the shutdown removes a major block slowing market progress and sets the stage for more supportive conditions in crypto markets. In the past when the US government reopened after a shutdown, markets reacted very strongly. In 2013, Bitcoin rallied over 200% in the month after the shutdown ended, and over 480% in the three months that followed (noting Bitcoin was much smaller back then). After the 2018–19 shutdown, Bitcoin first dipped, then rebounded around 50% over the next three months, outperforming traditional markets.

3. Tax cuts from the ‘big beautiful bill’ start in January
   The ‘big beautiful bill’ is a nickname for a large US tax law, which changes how much federal tax people and businesses pay and how some credits and deductions work. It has been marketed as giving the ‘largest tax cut in American history’ to workers and families.

   What this means: When people get tax cuts, it effectively adds extra money into the system, which has often supported risk assets like stocks and crypto. It doesn’t guarantee prices will go up, but it is one of several macro tailwinds that can help sustain a bull market rather than end it.

4. More rate cuts are on the table
   The US Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates more in the near future. This usually makes borrowing cheaper and encourages spending and investment.

   What this means: Across previous market cycles, a shift from quantitative tightening to quantitative easing (money printing) has generally increased liquidity and supported strong rallies. When central banks cut rates or add more money into the system, markets usually rise — and crypto tends to benefit even more.

5. Jerome Powell’s term as Chair of the Federal Reserve is ending in May 
   Trump is known to have a strained relationship with Powell and publicly criticised his stance on interest rates. Once Powell is out, Trump is expected to appoint a Fed Chair who aligns more closely with his monetary policy preferences

   What this means: If Trump does what everyone expects him to and appoints a Fed Chair who favours cutting interest rates, it could lead to easier monetary conditions, which historically creates a more positive environment for risk assets like stocks and crypto.​​

6. Altcoins are extremely oversold
   This can happen when investors lose confidence or move funds out of riskier assets. However, these conditions have historically preceded strong rebounds, not cycle endings.

   What this means: altcoins being this cheap can offer buying opportunities, and these conditions are something we normally see before big recoveries — not at the end of a bull run.

7. S&P 500 at all-time highs
   The S&P 500 reached all-time highs in December and has been trading close to these record levels, reflecting strong market confidence despite some volatility.​

   What this means: The S&P 500 reaching all-time highs indicates strong risk appetite among investors. Since around 2020, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have shown a strong positive correlation. When the stock market rallies to new highs, Bitcoin often follows because both benefit from a ‘risk-on’ environment.

8. Gold at all-time highs
   Similarly, when gold peaks, it often signals capital preparing to rotate into higher-risk assets like Bitcoin.

   What this means: investors often move from safe assets (like gold) into higher-growth assets (like crypto) once confidence increases.

9. M2 money supply at record highs
   M2 is a broad measure of how much money is circulating in the economy, including cash, bank deposits, and easily accessible funds. When M2 rises, it usually indicates expanding liquidity, which has historically aligned with strong periods in risk assets like crypto.

   What this means: there’s more money moving around in the system — and rising liquidity tends to lift risk assets like Bitcoin (which in turn lifts the broader crypto market). 

10. ISM manufacturing is at ‘range lows’
    ISM (Institute for Supply Management) manufacturing is a key economic indicator that measures the health of the manufacturing sector and broader economic momentum. When ISM hits range lows, it often signals that a bottom is forming and that policy may soon shift from tightening to support.

    What this means: weak manufacturing data often leads to stimulus — and stimulus usually boosts markets.

11. The copper–gold ratio has bottomed at extreme levels
    The copper-gold ratio measures the price of copper relative to gold, where copper represents economic growth and risk appetite because it’s widely used in industry, while gold acts as a ‘safe haven’ asset during times of uncertainty. When this ratio rises, it signals investor confidence and economic expansion, whereas a falling ratio indicates caution and a preference for safety.

    What this means: For crypto investors, the copper-gold ratio helps gauge the general market mood. A rising ratio indicates growing risk appetite (good for crypto) and a falling ratio signals caution and risk aversion.

12. This cycle is being driven by the business cycle, not a four-year clock
    As mentioned in part 1, global liquidity and debt-refinancing patterns have pushed the typical four-year rhythm out of alignment, and the market now appears to be following a broader macro cycle.

    What this means: this bull run isn’t broken, it’s just following a more expanded timeline to previous bull cycles. 

13. A US$12.5 trillion retirement market is now open to Bitcoin
    Large pension funds and retirement plans can now legally invest a portion of their vast assets into Bitcoin through ETFs. Several major funds have started allocating to Bitcoin, bringing even more stability and consistent demand to the crypto market.

    What this means: A huge pool of long-term, slow-moving money can now flow into Bitcoin. This creates a long-term demand engine and steady buying pressure from patient institutional investors.

14. ETFs for Bitcoin and a growing number of altcoins
    ETFs (exchange-traded funds) for Bitcoin and some altcoins have made it much easier for big institutional investors like hedge funds, pension funds, and large corporations to buy and hold crypto. This has built what’s called ‘institutional rails’, or infrastructure, that supports ongoing and consistent demand for crypto assets.

    What this means: Crypto markets have become less dependent on retail investors alone and are benefiting from steady, large-scale capital inflows. This equates to more stability and potential for growth in the market because institutional money tends to bring long-term interest and reduces dramatic price swings. 

15. An old CME gap around US$92k has effectively been filled
    A CME gap is a price gap that appears on the Bitcoin futures chart traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Because the CME closes on weekends while crypto markets trade 24/7, if Bitcoin’s price moves significantly over a weekend, a gap forms between the CME’s Friday close and the next opening price on Sunday. Traders pay attention to these gaps because historically Bitcoin tends to ‘fill’ them, meaning the price often moves back to cover the gap area later. Filling a gap is important as it resolves a technical imbalance and often signals a strong support level where buyers may step in, stabilising the price and encouraging renewed upward momentum.

    What this means: Filling the old CME gap around US$92,000 signals a key technical balance has been restored, which can help Bitcoin prices stabilise and potentially begin moving higher as buyers gain confidence in this support zone. 

16. Warren Buffett’s firm investing into Alphabet (Google)
    Berkshire Hathaway recently invested nearly US$5 billion into Google’s parent company, Alphabet. This is significant because Berkshire usually avoids tech stocks.
    What this means: A big, conservative investor backing a tech giant like Alphabet often attracts more institutional interest and supports strength across the tech sector. Because crypto tends to move in line with tech, this confidence can spill over into the broader market.

17. Stimulus cheques are being openly discussed for 2026
    There is talk about sending $2,000 stimulus cheques to Americans in mid-2026.

    What this means: when people receive cash from the government, some of it often finds its way into markets like crypto. In the past, stimulus cheques have had a noticeably positive effect on crypto markets.

18. The ‘death cross’ has not behaved like a traditional crash signal in this cycle
    As we discovered in part 1, the death cross does not always correlate to downward movement. The price action around this crossover hasn’t shown the sharp breakdowns that are associated with final tops.

    What this means: even though the technical pattern appeared, it didn’t cause the kind of crash that we would normally associate with a top.

19. None of the classic ‘top of bull run’ indicators have triggered
    Our most reliable crypto market indicators aren’t showing the usual signs of a bull market ending. In past cycles, we’d see clear warnings before a peak, such as extreme greed, falling volumes, or momentum breaking down. None of those signals are present right now.

    What this means: The usual signs that the bull run is ending simply aren’t here.

20. There was no true euphoria
    Major tops are marked by mania and mainstream frenzy, and we simply haven’t seen that yet.

    What this means: bull markets end in excitement — and we haven’t come close to that level of hype yet.

As you can see, when you step back and look at this list with evidence rather than emotion, crypto has never had a better foundation to flourish. It’s simply a timing game now.

We all know headlines chase clicks and they’re designed to play on our emotions, rather than offer objective truth. That’s why I always encourage people to zoom out and focus on education. In my experience, when you look beyond what the headline is shouting, and apply a logical lens, you get a much more balanced view of what is happening in this crypto market.

In part 3, I’ll talk about what all of this means for you as an investor, and how you can navigate it  without letting fear dictate your strategy.

The post Let’s talk – part 2: If I’m wrong, then all this is wrong 🔍 appeared first on Digital Wealth Group.

In this special 3-part series, I’m going to walk you through what we at DWG are seeing behind the scenes. Because we’re not going off headlines or emotion – we’re looking at the micro, macro and fundamental indicators that give us a wider lens. These indicators are the reason we have confidence in what we’re telling investors, and why we keep repeating the one thing no one wants to hear right now: ‘Patience’

So let’s start with why people think this bull market could be over…

Right now, there are generally two bearish indicators that are pointed to as proof that the crypto bull market is done. Let’s unpack them.

1. The Bitcoin Death Cross 

A ‘death cross’ is the name given to a particular chart pattern that signals a potential downturn or trend reversal. It happens when Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average drops below its 200-day moving average. (The 50-day average reflects the short-term trend, while the 200-day average reflects the long-term trend).

When the 50-day, or short-term trend, is well above the 200-day, or long term trend, it typically signifies a strong market. When it breaks below and stays there, it can be interpreted as a weakening market. It has historically been used to mark some cycle tops.

In the last few weeks, that 50-day line dropped below the 200-day line, which is why you saw so many scary headlines about the ‘Bitcoin Death Cross’.

But here is the important context you need to know. The death cross has marked cycle tops before – but not in every instance. 

Let’s look at the data:

• In early 2014, Bitcoin flashed a death cross at roughly the mid‑US$300s, and instead of crashing immediately, it rallied strongly afterwards, rising 50-70% in the following months.​
• In early September 2014, another death cross formed around the US$480 level, and this time the market did trend lower over the next several months, with drawdowns of around 40% within a year.​
• In late March 2018, a death cross appeared after the blow‑off top of the 2017 cycle, and while there was a brief bounce, it ultimately preceded a more prolonged downturn. ​
• In mid‑June 2021, Bitcoin printed another daily death cross following the May 2021 crash. That didn’t mark the end of the cycle at all. In fact, the market went on to hit a new all-time high later that year.
• And now, in the current cycle, we’ve seen the same indicator appear again. But this time, we’re in a very different macro environment compared to previous cycles.

What the data is clearly showing is that the death cross is not a guarantee of a cycle ending, it’s simply one piece of information. In a market as fast-moving and macro-driven as crypto, no single indicator should ever be treated as the deciding factor.

Investors who are new to crypto can sometimes panic when they see the death cross discussed online. It sounds definitive. It has the word ‘death’ in it. But in reality, it’s far more nuanced. As you’ll see in Part 2, it needs to be read alongside the bigger picture, the broader macro forces, and the unique characteristics of each cycle.

In other words: the death cross is worth understanding, but it isn’t a reason, on its own, to assume the bull market is over.

Now let’s look at the other big factor people are worried about when it comes to this bull cycle: the timing.

2. The Four-Year Cycle 

There’s a capitulation happening right now amongst people who held strongly to the 4-year cycle narrative. They figure, if it hasn’t happened by now in the exact timing as previous cycles, it must be over, right?

Well, let’s take a look.

On one hand, we have a historical timeframe for these cycles, that is true. But on the other, we have this undeniable evidence from macro that we just can’t ignore. So we have two major narratives playing out in real time.

Historically we’ve seen:

• A strong run-up after the halving
• A euphoric blow-off top
• A deep bear market
• A long accumulation phase
• Then the next cycle begins

….. All unfolding within a 4-year window.

However, the more institutional money that flows into this market, the more extended each cycle becomes. Why? Because institutions are not emotional investors. They move big capital, have longer time horizons and their behaviour naturally smooths out the volatility in the assets they accumulate.

But the other reason this four-year cycle hasn’t repeated perfectly is because crypto is now influenced by the broader business cycle, not just the halving. And part of that comes down to what’s happening with US government debt.

Here’s the simple version.

The US government regularly refinances its debt – think of it like rolling over a home loan when the fixed term ends. We got used to this happening within a certain timeframe, but in recent years, the US Treasury extended the average time before this debt has to be refinanced. This means some refinancing that would normally happen sooner is now happening later.

Why does this matter for markets like crypto?

Because large refinancing waves often create pressure on governments and central banks to add more liquidity into the system. And liquidity is one of the biggest drivers of asset prices, including crypto.

So instead of getting a major liquidity boost earlier — as we saw in past four-year cycles — that pressure has been delayed. This is one of the key reasons this current cycle isn’t aligning with previous ones. The liquidity wave simply hasn’t arrived yet. That liquidity arriving, in the form of money printing, will have a deep impact on these markets, like it has every time before.

This is where we are very likely seeing the evolution of the four-year cycle, and the impact that institutions and macro events have on it.

In summary: 

We have seen the break below the 50-day moving average, no one is denying that.

We have seen timelines become extended, and we’ve explored the reasons for that.

But what we have not seen are the many other factors, including the euphoric phase, that have marked previous crypto cycle tops. Instead, what we’re seeing is panic, doubt, and new investors questioning whether they should have entered the market at all.

None of this is end-of-cycle behaviour.

I understand that some investors have very strong attachments to the 4-year timeframe, and it can make it harder to see the broader bullish forces at play right now. But the truth is, I wouldn’t be doing this work if I didn’t genuinely believe in the opportunity that crypto presents. The macro forces are having more of an influence than we anticipated this cycle, but that doesn’t mean it’s over. In my view, the fundamentals are giving us one of the strongest setups we’ve seen in years.

But you don’t have to take my word for it. 

In part two, I will share with you 20 key indicators that DWG is looking at behind the scenes, and why none of them point to this cycle being over.

The post Let’s talk – part 1: Is it over? 🤔 appeared first on Digital Wealth Group.

But today, I wanted to unpack that sentiment and provide a little encouragement for those who may be new to the volatility of cryptocurrencies.

If you look at the chart below, the first thing you notice is the upward trajectory. But when you zoom in, the volatility comes into focus.

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And yes…. every one of those big dips came with predictions of the cycle being ‘over’ – at least according to mainstream media and some crypto influencers.

But here’s where it gets interesting: The data during these times was telling a very different story. In fact, anyone who was checking in with historically reliable indicators knew that none of them were pointing to crypto being over.

So what’s the lesson here?

Well, if you listened to the fearful sentiment during these dips, you may have missed out on some incredible opportunities. But if you looked at the macro indicators, and put emotions to the side, you could see the facts through the fiction.

Cycle after cycle, we see the same emotional pattern of panic during dips. Meanwhile, the investors who focus on the facts, rather than the feelings, are the ones who win time and time again. We only need to look at that chart to see every one of those ‘It’s so over’ moments in Bitcoin’s history turned out to be another stepping stone on its journey to where it is now.

The truth is, when you’re grounded in education and know how to block out the noise, you give yourself a real edge in this market.

At DWG, we’ve been through multiple bull markets, bear markets, euphoric peaks, and crypto winters – and I can tell you that nothing we’re seeing now suggests this market is done. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. When we check in with the indicators that have consistently proven accurate over time, all signs point to strength.

In my opinion, we’re primed and ready for a bull market peak right ahead. We just need to let the market do the heavy lifting and remain patient

The post The one phrase that shows up every cycle 🤔 appeared first on Digital Wealth Group.

‘Crypto is a scam’
In many ways, I find it fascinating that people still think this way. We’ve come so far since 2017, when the crypto space really was the Wild West! These days, we have some of the biggest financial giants in the world building crypto products and adding it to their corporate treasuries. We even have governments exploring it for strategic reserves.

None of this is behaviour we’d normally associate with scams. In fact, it’s a powerful signal of just how legitimised this asset class has become.

We have to remember that institutions don’t just wander into anything for fun. They go through endless red tape, compliance, and approvals before touching a new asset. Which means they’re not entering this market for a quick trade – they’re in it for the long term.

So when you hear the ‘crypto is a scam’ line, know that it’s simply outdated thinking. You can debate the naysayers if you like, or choose to conserve your energy while you build your portfolio. Because when the next wave of adoption hits, you’ll be the one taking profit while others are rushing in.

‘Crypto has no real value’
This one always makes me smile. Would you say a decentralised currency with a fixed supply that governments can’t touch or inflate has value? What about the ability to send money peer-to-peer across the world in minutes instead of days? Or having an immutable record of every transaction ever made?

Most crypto investors think of Bitcoin as a digital store of value – like gold, but portable. But there are other sectors where the utility of this asset class really shines. Ethereum and other smart contract platforms underpin entire ecosystems of finance, gaming, and digital ownership. DeFi is disrupting banking and finance. And then there’s the intersection of AI and blockchain – which is only just beginning.

In my opinion, we haven’t even come close to realising the value that will emerge from this space.

‘Crypto is just a fad’
Some of the world’s most transformative inventions were once dismissed as fads – the internet, electricity, and the automobile, to name a few. Crypto is following that same path, only faster, because capital flows in from every corner of the globe and innovation builds in real time.

Every cycle adds more infrastructure, more regulation, and more institutional adoption. Which means the longer it survives, the stronger it gets. And if something has already survived for 16 years, outlived hundreds of headlines calling it ‘dead,’ and attracted the attention of the world’s biggest financial players, it’s safe to say it’s not a fad.

‘It’s too late to get in’
This one comes up a lot, especially now that Bitcoin has surpassed the US$100K mark. But here’s what we need to remember: believe it or not, we are still early.

The percentage of the global population that owns crypto is somewhere between 7–12%. Saying it’s too late to get in is like saying the early 2000s were “too late” to invest in the internet.

As I often say, the ‘Apples’ and ‘Amazons’ of crypto are yet to be invented. I believe the biggest growth is still ahead, and crypto will prove to be one of the greatest disrupters (and opportunities) of our lifetime.

The fact is, crypto is a genuine, taxed financial asset class. Bitcoin is the best performing financial asset of all time, blowing the returns of stocks, gold, bonds, and real estate out of the water. It now sits alongside gold as a recognised store of value, and the adoption we’re seeing from billionaires, corporations, and financial institutions is unprecedented.

The myths will always be there, just like they were with every great innovation in history. But for those who can see beyond the noise, this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. The decentralised future is being built right now, and you’re already ahead of the curve.

The post Crypto is just a scam (and other myths) appeared first on Digital Wealth Group.

The classic crypto volatility has been in full swing recently, and new investors could be wondering what they’ve got themselves into!

Even those who have been here awhile, can still sometimes feel like this:

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But whether you’re a seasoned investor, or someone who has just discovered this asset class, I want to reassure you that dips and red candles don’t mean crypto is broken. We’ve seen moves like this many times before, and will likely see them again. The volatility is simply part and parcel of crypto investing.

In fact, we don’t get the incredible gains without it!

Now, in case you missed it, Raoul Pal, a respected and well-known macro analyst, dropped a bit of a bombshell idea this week. He believes the classic 4-year Bitcoin and crypto cycle may be shifting to 5 years.

His reasoning? Two key factors:
• The ISM (Institute for Supply Management index), which tracks the broader business cycle.
• A change in how the US government manages its debt.

Back in 2021/22, the US Treasury quietly extended the weighted average maturity of its debt from 4 years to 5. That means the cycle of refinancing (and the liquidity waves that come with it)  now run on a slightly longer timeline. Pal argues that because Bitcoin’s price has historically been tied to both the business cycle and global liquidity, this pushes out the expected bull market peak into Q2 2026, instead of 2025 as many have been anticipating.

Some analysts share Pal’s view, while others hold firmly to the 4-year playbook. Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle has always been the backbone of crypto’s rhythm. However, as the asset class matures, macro policy and liquidity flows are becoming just as powerful.

So where does that leave us as investors?

If you’re already fully allocated, your number one skill right now is patience. That means no panic selling, no doom-scrolling, and definitely no emotional reactions to red candles. You’ve done the work, you’ve built your portfolio, now it’s about holding steady and letting the cycle play out. This is not the time to quit, or get shaken out of your positions.

And if you’re not yet fully allocated? Congratulations because this market has just handed you an incredible gift: more time to dollar-cost average at great prices.

Remember, the quality coins you’ve invested in haven’t changed on a fundamental level – same tech, same utility, same value proposition – but now they’re essentially on flash sale. Which offers a fantastic opportunity to lower your average buy price (something your future self will thank you for).

The truth is, no one has a crystal ball and no one knows exactly when the cycle will peak. The four-year cycle has held strong through many black swan events and even a global pandemic, so will this time really be different? Nobody knows for sure.

What we do know is that the path is always volatile and the short-term picture always messy. But zoom out, and the pattern is crystal clear:

Every cycle has delivered extraordinary upside for those who stayed the course.

In my opinion, whether the cycle peak comes in a few weeks, or a few months, the strategy doesn’t change. Remove emotion, dollar cost average into quality projects, and have your selling plan in place so you’re ready to act when the time comes.

The post Is the crypto cycle changing? 🤔 appeared first on Digital Wealth Group.